How to predict the rate of dollar against the euro - simplified complex?

If you can not imagine the forecasts of the dollar without modern tools of technical analysis, deep research and analysis of the fundamentals and spend your free time analyzing the graphs of currency fluctuation then this article is not for you. The current macroeconomic situation is so that the changes in exchange rates should be observed even by ordinary citizens, in order not to remain with a zero balance at the time of global economic crisis. In order to effectively manage personal finances, you must have at least some knowledge and techniques, which would allow you to effectively conjure over domestic accounting and not to lose in the change in rates. In order for your wallet to be in monetary ecstasy, and you sleep to become even calmer, we’ll try to give some tips for those who want to navigate in changing rates and apply this knowledge to benefit themselves and their twill. We’ll try to talk about it in the simplest and clearest way.

Let’s start from, perhaps, the most important which defines not only exchange rates but also the development of industry and the economy as a whole. This is the price of raw materials. Naturally, professional economists have a range of indicators on a wide range of commodity items, but for those who in the morning, turning the computer on, want to know the direction in which American president and European colored wrappers will go should only operate two products - oil and gold. Of course, very often trends rates of gold and oil move in different directions, but you should understand the simple rule - if you see that oil prices are beginning to grow then this is the first call that the exchange rate for the currency at which oil is sold (namely the U.S.D.) will begin to decline. And vice versa. This is because by large, people in the whole exchange world choose either currency or raw materials. If they think that raw materials are important, and money is just wrappers, the exchange rates begin to fall. Conversely, when the world economy is in decline, production starts to stop and demand for commodities drops then it's time for the rates to grow.

How do I know the cost of oil and gold? Today, it is very easy, just go to any site on the exchange quotation or simply to the news site, for example rbc.ru, where rates of gold and oil are and there is a pointer next to them, symbolizing the growth or decline rate as compared to the previous day (or the previous rate). If the fluctuations are significant, and you saw that the price of oil or gold, changed a few percent, be sure the dollar will change.

In addition to the price of oil and gold, the most important regulator of the dollar and the euro is the so-called refinancing rate - the percentage by which the U.S. central bank (the U.S. Federal Reserve) and the European Central Bank issues credits to commercial banks so that they in turn issue loans to businesses and the public. This rate is often used by central banks of countries to regulate the national currency. If the rate is reduced, the central banks release more money into the market, that is, money becomes cheaper, and, as a consequence, the rate of the currency falls. That is, if you read the morning newspaper or heard on television that the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered the refinancing rate, then, think about the downward trend of the dollar. And vice versa. The same can be said of the dollar.

Talking about dual currency basket (DCB) it should be said that, recently for all residents of Russia, the term is being heard more and more often. Those three letters mean to imply the average from addition of the dollar and euro. We will not go into detail about why this is necessary for economists, it is important for another reason - the framework of dual currency basket. If the Central Bank sets them, it's going to keep the rate of the currency change within this framework. And there can be no illusions, if you see that bicurrencial basket is about to reach the highest level of DCB, it is very likely that this will not happen, but the next day the Central Bank will begin to shoot down the exchange rate and open up a new trend for a decrease, which will not be missed by currency traders who wish to undertake another cycle on reduction of the rate, and then on its increase. Closely monitor this indicator, and remember that the probability of reaching the top and bottom of the basket is very small.

If you already have a specified route through the online media each morning, then surely the results of your analysis of exchange rates will be very effective. You may have guessed, you may have heard, but there is a real management of the crowd in the media on the Internet, designed to benefit banks. We will not name the resources, it is only to say that this is the most popular Internet media, which are running policies designed to generate artificial demand for some currency. It was especially amusing to observe the process during the so-called «smooth devaluation» of ruble. Dear readers, make it a rule to analyze what you read. Remember, if in the morning you are reading in the media that the «U.S.D. soon will be 70 rubles» or the headlines similar to «there is almost no currency left at the exchange offices », and all of that is written in different «credible» sites, then this is another time when there was a descent sent to the network to bring people to the exchange offices. However, all this has a reverse side of the coin. If the trend is caught at shocking Internet audience in the very conception, a decent amount can be earned. Currencies have indeed increased, but the sign of the generation of an artificial demand has been further correction of the course. Media, at the same time, is our helper and our enemy, and he who can analyzes the media, has a trump card in the game against the foreign exchange market.

Above identified were four critical factors that can help you analyze the dollar and euro. Which one is the most important? Maybe someone can say it is not possible to answer exactly, but dare we assure you, it is. This factor is the media, and it was made so powerful by our American «friends». If someone tries to argue then think of any of the thousands of cases, when all economic factors are talking about a trend, and as the result there was another trend formed under the influence of the media. These are the information wars, which are merciless, and the one who always wins is the one who puts the information into the network. Therefore, in order to predict the course, look what Internet is tattling about, where it is actively promoting the course, what is happening to commodity prices, what the refinancing rate and the boundary of DCB are. Since this paper is written for those who are trying to buy or sell a currency, only to save their money rather than earning them in the forex, you should say that if all 4 factors suggest that the rate will change then it will change, be confident. If, for example, this is being said only by two factors - raw materials and the media, then the probability of change of trend is also very high. And yet, do not believe all sorts of amateur, proving that wherever the course would not go, still it is directed against the population. This is nonsense, since the foreign exchange markets - this is a ground for big players who care little about other people, it is important to earn on the tools they have at hand, not to cause anyone trouble. But in our difficult time the rates are subject to fluctuations with high amplitudes, and to get into the right trend is very hard for an ordinary man, and that rises rumors about the game against ordinary people.

Armed with knowledge of all four factors, now every morning, you can start with your own analysis of the dollar and the euro, which necessarily will be successful, if not to be lazy to monitor everything that is described in time and dynamics. The main thing is to remember that when you put all your eggs in one basket .... Well, you know ... Keep the money in different currencies, do not forget about the gold account and then your personal finances shall not fear no global economic crisis.

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