Crisis-on or off

On a wave of an agiotage around of mortgage crisis in the USA and crisis of liquidity in world bank system one cannot fail thinking that the problems with the finance on real bank accounts will transfer to the electronic sluices, and there, having created a rough flow, will throw out the virtual financiers on an electronic bank. We'll try to answer this up-to-date question having analyzed the situation from the economic point of view. First of all one should pay attention that slowdown of American economics caused by disability of USA population to pay back its mortgage credit that resulted in bankruptcy of number of American banks, including the largest American mortgage financial company New Century Financial. All these were caused the drop in dollar rate in comparison to other currencies. Examining the situation in short-term prospect many analytics agreed in opinion that the root of all evil regarding dollar should be searched everywhere: in oil price, in liquidity crisis, in actions of central banks of Europe and Asia, but they forgot about the comprehensive macroeconomic approach to USA economics. So, the constant metamorphosises in pair of Dollar and Euros that take place against the background of US currency bearish trend resulted in slowdown of population demand for US dollar.

In view of foresaid the population slowly began to change the currency for use in their Internet business transaction and to have more liquid currencies than the banknotes with the images of American presidents. Besides crisis of dollar is roused by the strengthening of rouble rate, that can very soon cause in significant withdrawal of USD from the purses of Internet users in the field of Russian virtual economy. It is interesting, that the similar tendency can be also observed in cross-rates of dollar against Swiss franc, pound sterling and Canadian dollar, having recently established the historical minimum 1995, 1991 and 1950 relatively for each pair of currencies.

Analyzing the preferences of population, one can say with confidence that in P2P sphere the crisis of American economics and dollar in whole will surely affect the currency of calculations between users in Russia and all over the world. Against the background of constantly decreasing dollar the calculations will surely pass to more liquid currency. In our country it is rouble, and in EU it is euro. And though 80 % of all world financial operations are still made in dollars, we together will witness the revolutionary changes. Especially first steps start to occur already today. So Chang Sivej, Deputy Chairman of Standing Committee of All-China national representatives meeting, addressed the meeting in support of national currency politics at the conference which took place in Beijing with the following: “We’ll prefer hard currency to the soft one and will reconstruct our policy correspondingly". If we take into consideration the recent initiatives of China to convert 250 bill USD, the future of American currency makes the investors think hard. And this even happens to the ones who want in short-term prospect to make this or that operation through EPS or Internet-banks with further converting into gold or any other currencies, for instance

Small and medium scale business that is characterized with quick reaction and adaptation to external factors in comparison to business structures of a world scale will surely pay a great attention to review of currencies priority. A problem is that slow and awkward locomotives of world economics which have in tow the carriages with oil-and-gas companies on which accounts there are thousands of financial futures made for future in dollars, are unable quickly to be reconstructed on alternative currencies with the greater liquidity, than dollar. And exactly this thing acts as the deterrent for the superheated currency market. But the smaller structures that pass considerable financial streams through the offshore areas or the structures that base their business on quick turnover of funds in Internet, are capable quickly replace the icon of dollar in section “calculation value” with any other currency with the better liquidity in their segment of the market.

However, if one examines the diagram of two curves reflecting the dynamics of dollar and rouble in Russia it will be interesting to notice that dollar inflation in pair USD - rouble for three weeks of November was 0,9 %, and depreciation of rouble for the same period was only 0,6 % in accordance with the statement of the first vice-president of Bank of Russia Alexey Uljukaev. In such business situation the involvement of ever liquid resources, such as gold and other precious metals is quite natural. A fever in the currency market has already increased the quotations of yellow ingots within 23 days of November for 3,19 %. Now it is expected that alongside with world states the users of electronic finance industry will start to fill up their gold reserves. One can affirm without any doubts that the virtual financier who decides to trust e-gold or who supports the initiatives of WebMoney on wmg-purses promotion will be able to sleep quietly. Whether you are working as web-master, or you have Internet shop, or build an adult-industry or run any other business in internet, the issue on transfer to gold and exchange accounts now should become the most important for you. And one can envy the users of electronic money as a number of exchange offices among which Trainex acts as a pioneer, now make some additional payments at input of money resources to wmz purses which later can be converted into electronic ounce. Any analyst today will advise you to transfer your funds into gold and then crisis of the mortgage and liquidity will pass you by, and may be even will please you with cross-rate in pair Gold - USD.

But anyway the weakening of US dollar in Internet is obvious, as on a par with grandmothers in our country that get their green banknotes from under mattresses, the interest of converting into roubles in operations of electronic exchange offices started to grow. So for the last half year Trainex analyst note the increase in demand for roubles at output of money resources from EPS accounts from 30 % up to 60 %. It is obvious, that mentality of today's EPS user is pressed by inflationary expectations. Such situation at absence of positive shifts is capable to increase in the future rouble turnovers in Runet, and in Internet to affect the strengthening of national electronic currencies.

It is necessary to note, that decrease of a dollar rate will create a positive trend in development of electronic trade on the western platforms where the calculations are made in dollars. There is an opinion that rates of integration of Russian Internet users into world market will increase due to the bigger purchasing capacity of rouble in relation to dollar. And we can see the first results. Not so long ago PayPal though not in a full scope of service services, but came to Russia. And if now our users will go the E-bay with the big enthusiasm the increase of electronic currencies turnover will be inevitable and this will cause the development of this field.

Summing up, it would be desirable to tell, that, certainly, the mortgage crisis with its long tenacious feelers which have entangled the whole world economics will also touch its virtual segment, however the structural changes in the virtual financial industry will not take place. The problems with money loans which badly reflected on bank sphere and well as the liquidity of mortgage papers and USA currency cannot seriously affect the finances of the users on the other side of the monitor. And though Warren Baffet while participating in October in TV program on CNBC channel has said that it was better to keep money “not in the American dollars”, such influence of the USA mortgage crisis on electronic money will result just in structural shift in the used currencies, but no more that. And lack of development of credit direction in virtual economy guarantees that all negative consequences from the considered crisis will mainly pass electronic finance industry by.

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